2024 NBA Finals Preview

As the NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics looms, basketball enthusiasts are salivating at the prospect of witnessing a clash of titans. Both teams have navigated through the treacherous waters of the regular season and the playoffs, overcoming great opponents and player injuries to earn their spot in the NBA Finals. One can argue Boston had a much easier road to get here, but don’t discount them — they destroyed everyone that was in their path. They led the NBA in scoring differential in the regular season and the postseason. Since the February trade deadline, these were the two best teams in each conference so it’s exciting to watch two teams at the top of their games.

The Dallas Mavericks, led by the Luka Doncic, have been nothing short of spectacular this postseason. Doncic's wizardry on the court has been the driving force behind Dallas' success, as he consistently demonstrates an otherworldly blend of scoring, playmaking, and basketball IQ. His ability to dissect defenses with surgical precision, coupled with his knack for hitting clutch shots, makes him a nightmare for any opposing team. But the real reason for why the team has taken off in the postseason is because several other Mavericks have stepped up. Most notably, Luka’s running mate, Kyrie Irving — he has been incredible, playing the role of the primary closer in tight games heading down the stretch. Dallas’ wings in P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. have provided elite defense and timely shooting, and the two headed monster at the center position with Daniel Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively has been excellent. All of these pieces provide the Mavericks with a formidable lineup capable of competing with the best. They just went through the gauntlet of the West — 4th seeded Clippers, 1st seeded Thunder, and 3rd seeded Timberwolves on their way to the Finals. They are battle tested and ready.

On the other side of the court, the Boston Celtics present a loaded roster with depth at almost every position. Led by the dynamic duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics boast a roster brimming with talent and versatility. They are arguably the only team in the entire NBA that can play 5 great shooters on the floor at the same time and not miss a beat on defense. They were the top 5 ranked scoring offense in the NBA throughout the regular season, while boasting a top 5 scoring defense. Truly an incredible, historic basketball team. Tatum's scoring prowess and Brown's versatility make them a lethal combination on both ends of the floor. After you get through Tatum and Brown, the Celtics (still) have borderline all stars to fill out the rest of the starting line up in Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis. Holiday is an NBA champion and one of the fiercest perimeter defenders in the NBA. White is the glue that connects the entire offense together and also an All-NBA defender in his own right. Porzingis is a great pick and pop center that also provides elite rim protection — the caveat with KP is he is coming off a pretty significant leg injury that has sidelined him for over a month. It was smart for Boston to rest him because they were never truly challenged in the Eastern Conference playoffs. If he’s not moving around at 100% and fully healthy in this series, look for Doncic and company to really hunt down that weakness on defense.

As the series unfolds, all eyes will be on the battle between 25-year-old Doncic and 26-year-old Tatum, two of the brightest young stars in the NBA. In a league comprised and dictated by the superstars, their individual performances could very well determine the outcome of the series, as both players possess the ability to take over games and lead their teams to victory. Doncic's crafty ball-handling and step-back three-pointers will test the Celtics' defense, while Tatum's array of mid-range jumpers and tough finishes at the rim will keep the Mavericks' defenders on their toes. If Tatum can play Luka to a push, Boston should handle Dallas pretty easily and win the title. But if Luka is clearly the better player and making the bigger impact in these games, then the ultimate decider may very well rest on Irving versus Brown and the rest of the supporting cast. This is why the series is so tasty from an analytical standpoint, there are so many games within the game.

In addition to the marquee player matchups, the series is featuring several intriguing subplots that could shape the overall narrative. Kyrie is playing against his former team, Kristaps is playing against his former team, and many more storylines. The coaching adjustments and strategic maneuvers will play a crucial role in the series as well. Both coaches have been impressive during this playoff run but neither Kidd or Mazzulla have won a title as head coach, although the former does have one title as a player. It’ll be up to how they adjust and put their players in positions to succeed after the first couple of games. I believe Dallas is the more malleable team because of the brilliance of Luka Doncic. Flexibility and adjustability, especially during a game, is the reason I put this facet as an advantage for the Mavericks.

In the end, the Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics are poised to deliver a Finals showdown for the ages, replete with jaw-dropping highlights, heart-stopping drama, and unforgettable moments. Whether it's Doncic draining a game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer or Tatum posterizing a defender with a thunderous dunk, basketball fans can expect to be treated to a spectacle worthy of the sport's grandest stage. So buckle up because the battle for basketball supremacy is about to begin. Boston will want to play fast, shoot a lot of threes, and simply out-talent the Mavericks. Dallas will want to slow the games down, limit the number of possessions, and keep the games close in the 4th quarters. Late game execution is where they excel and if they can get 4-5 games close down the stretch, they could be the ones hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy. It will be very interesting to see which team is able to control the pace over the other.

Boston has been here before. They were just in the Finals two seasons ago, and have been in deep postseasons for almost the entirety of Tatum’s tenure in Boston. In NBA history, they have played the most playoff games in a 5-year stretch without winning a title. Can this be the year they finally breakthrough?

I’m not going to pick a series winner. There is not a mathematical edge with where the betting odds now. Boston -210 is a tad too pricey. But I do have a few betting looks…

-145 Series to go over 5.5 Games

-110 Jrue Holiday under 5.5 REB

-110 Jayson Tatum under 9.9 REB

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Monthly Newsletter - NBA - January 2021

It’s hard to believe that a new NBA season has already begun, just 72 days after Lebron James and the Los Angeles Lakers won a hard-fought championship in the Orlando bubble. With minimal time to rest, recharge, train, and practice, it’ll be fascinating to see which teams thrive in this compressed regular season. Our first NBA newsletter is going to dive into the playoff contenders and pretenders in both conferences. We'll begin with the deep Eastern Conference.

CONTENDERS:

With reigning back-to-back MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo signing a supermax extension, the Milwaukee Bucks are again a contender in the East. Despite a fumbled attempt to bring in sharpshooter Bogdan Bogdanovic, the Bucks’ front office still managed to land a perfect Giannis-complement in Jrue Holiday. The price was steep (Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, two first-round picks AND swap rights to two others), but Holiday is a borderline all-star who should keep the Bucks at the top of the conference. To be honest, Jrue would have fit well with any contender that was reportedly pursuing him (Nets, Clippers, Nuggets, etc). He’s a solid shooter and playmaker, as well as a terrific defender who practically shut down Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum single-handedly in the playoffs a couple years ago. I’ve seen reports that Giannis worked on his low-post moves and free throw shooting the past couple months, which I think will be more impactful than if he kept trying to force the three-ball into his arsenal. Sometimes, you just need to focus on your strengths!

The Miami Heat are the defending Eastern Conference champs, after an inspiring and unexpected bubble run led by Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and a strong supporting cast. This team is DEEP, with young talent that should continue developing in 2021. I love their flexibility, switchability, and toughness demanded by the infamous Heat culture. In this shortened season, look for Miami’s depth and work ethic to give them an edge in the standings. I’m a huge Heat fan, and I have a feeling they’ll do everything they can to defend their conference title.

Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will finally play together for the Brooklyn Nets, and I think they have a fantastic shot at making it all the way out of the Eastern Conference. Lots of folks are focused on the Nets’ stars and sleeping on the team’s depth, which has Caris Levert, Joe Harris, Jarrett Allen, and others in the rotation. Spencer Dinwiddie’s injury hurts, but the roster is loaded with other players ready to take his minutes. I love the way first-time head coach Steve Nash is delegating offensive responsibilities to guru Mike D’Antoni, while handing the team’s defensive strategy to Jacque Vaughn. I wish more NBA teams would do this, and I think Nash’s attempt could really pay off. The big question, of course, is whether KD can get to his former self – or at least to about 90%. If he can, I’d be comfortable putting big money on the Nets to win the East!

PRETENDERS:

The Boston Celtics are considered contenders for the East throne, and if Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown each take another big step forward while moving into their prime, look out. Boston used to have tons of depth, roster flexibility for the future, and a cupboard of draft assets – but the more I look at this team I wonder if their window is quickly closing. The top of the East is stacked, and I don’t love the Celtics’ chances without a couple more key pieces. Maybe Danny Ainge can work his magic at the trade deadline.

If James Harden gets his way, I think the best asset rumored to be in play is easily Ben Simmons. And if a trade happens, I guess I’d bump the Philadelphia 76ers to contender status. For now, I just can’t trust the core of Embiid/Simmons to take this team very far, even despite Daryl Morey’s excellent offseason moves to improve 3-point shooting with Seth Curry and Danny Green. And I definitely don’t believe that Doc Rivers can pep-talk the Sixers all the way to the pinnacle.

The Toronto Raptors lost front court depth in Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, which ultimately bumps them down in this ranking. They still have fantastic depth, potential growth from young players like OG Anunoby and Terrence Davis, and one of the best coaches in the league in Nick Nurse. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raptors claw their way to the Eastern Conference Finals, but I can’t quite imagine them winning it.

Next we'll head West, which feels more top-heavy than usual and is led by some familiar faces.

CONTENDERS:

The Los Angeles Lakers are defending champs and overwhelming favorites at most sportsbooks to repeat in 2021. Lebron James is timeless, Anthony Davis is thrilling, and the supporting cast has been bolstered by some terrific offseason signings. Losing key championship pieces like Rajon Rondo, Danny Green, Dwight Howard, and Avery Bradley would usually be crippling, but Rob Pelinka’s front office managed to add better players to replace them all. Marc Gasol is the perfect big to complement AD and LBJ, though his health is understandably a concern. The top two Sixth Man of the Year finishers from last season arrive, with Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell looking to wreak havoc off the bench. And I think Wesley Matthews could end up being an X-factor – he’s a tough, veteran 3-and-D guy that the Lakers need to play well. I would put the Lakers in a tier of their own as the #1 contender to win the championship again this season.

If anyone can challenge the Lakers in the West, it’s their extra housemate/ugly stepsister/forgotten younger sibling, the Los Angeles Clippers. Kawhi Leonard was considered by some to be the best player on the planet after leading the Toronto Raptors to the title in 2019, and I’m sure he’s programmed to be on a mission this season. Paul George will be looking to prove himself after a rough Playoff P stretch, although I’m always wary of a player’s performance right after signing a huge contract extension. The loss of Montrezl Harrell is tough, but Serge Ibaka is a solid replacement. But the biggest change is the coaching shift from Doc Rivers to Ty Lue, which I believe could be a huge upgrade. The Clippers are the strongest West challengers to the Lakers’ throne, but I’d only bet on them if I got outstanding odds.

PRETENDERS:

I’d love to move the next two teams up a level, but the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz still seem to me like pretenders. As much as I love their top players, it doesn’t feel like Jokic/Murray or Mitchell/Gobert can reach the same heights as the LA duos. Denver and Utah mostly stood pat this offseason, so it’ll take another leap from their young cornerstones to make a big impact. The only other possibility to move up to contender status is if health becomes a factor for the older LA stars during the compressed season.

Two of my favorite players to watch are Damian Lillard and Luka Doncic, but unfortunately the Portland Trailblazers and Dallas Mavericks can’t be considered serious threats in the West this season. Portland made great offseason moves, nabbing 3-D extraordinaire Robert Covington along with solid role players in Enes Kanter and Derrick Jones Jr, but it still doesn’t feel like enough. Jusuf Nurkic was a beast in the bubble after missing most of last season, so maybe if he’s back at 100% the Blazers could have a chance. On the other hand, the Mavericks don’t really have a real chance, and they’re on this list simply due to Doncic’s brilliance. Swapping Seth Curry for Josh Richardson doesn’t do much for me, and I am doubtful that Kristaps Porzingis can be the second-best player on a championship contender. The Mavs were reportedly hoping to pursue Giannis next offseason, but now that he’s off the table it might be better to build some draft assets or take a gamble on younger players who could eventually pop next to Luka.

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A sincere thank you to T.J. for the article and our first ever newsletter published for AC. This is a big step towards what I envision AC to eventually become. A go to resource for sports enthusiasts looking for information, sharp analysis, and handicapping insights. Happy 2021 everyone!

- AC